A Country’s Lasting Aftershocks
By SATORU IKEUCHI, GENICHIRO TAKAHASHI and MITSUYOSHI NUMANO
The physicist Torahiko Terada wrote in 1934, “The more civilization progresses, the greater the violence of nature’s wrath.” Nearly 67 years later, his words appear prescient.
Humans have become increasingly arrogant, believing they have conquered nature. We build ever larger, ever more concentrated, ever more uniform structures. Scientists and engineers think that they are responding to the demands of society, but they have forgotten their larger responsibilities to society, emphasizing only the positive aspects of their endeavors.
The catastrophe facing the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant epitomizes this phenomenon. Although earthquakes are so frequent in Japan that it has been described as “a nation lying atop a block of tofu,” we have built some 54 nuclear reactors along the coast, vulnerable to tsunamis. It should have been foreseen that an earthquake of this magnitude might occur, and if the plant could not withstand such an event, it should not have been constructed.
In addition, the failure of power systems fueling the plant’s emergency core cooling system suggests that the models used to design the system were too lax. The decision to pump seawater into the nuclear reactor was late in coming. Each of these problems was foreseeable.
Even now, as workers at the plant continue to do their utmost, I am haunted by a nightmare in which a succession of nuclear meltdowns produces radioactive pollution greater than what was released at Chernobyl.
Until a few years ago, power usage in Japan was such that during the summer Obon holidays, when people typically return to their ancestral homes, it would have been possible to meet demand even if all nuclear power plants were turned off. Now, nuclear energy has come to be indispensable for both industry and for our daily lives. Our excessive consumption of energy has somehow become part of our very character; it is something we no longer think twice about.
Japan reached global prominence through science and technology, but we cannot deny that this has also resulted in an arrogance that has diminished our ability to imagine disaster. We have fallen into the trap of being stupefied by civilization.
— SATORU IKEUCHI, astrophysicist at the Graduate University for Advanced Studies. This article was translated by Matthew Fraleigh from the Japanese.
Hours after the earthquake, the columnist Masahiko Katsuya scrapped the article he had been writing and started over. “Surely, this is a national emergency,” his new column began. “Just when the Japanese nation had hit bottom politically, economically and morally, we suffered a blow so crushing it seemed it might well be the end of us. But we mustn’t let that happen. ... My fellows, let us fight! Fight until our vigor is restored!”
This is the rhetoric of war. And it’s not a metaphor. This disaster is the war that many Japanese have been dreading, and expecting, for a long time.
Four years ago, an article titled “War Is Our Only Hope” appeared in a political magazine. “More than a decade has passed,” the young writer wrote, “since we were set adrift in society as low-wage workers. And yet society, far from extending a helping hand, heaps insults on us, saying we lower the G.D.P., calling us lazy bums. If the peace endures, the current inequality will last until we die. We need something to break this asphyxiating stagnation and set things in motion. War is one possible solution.”
These words jolted Japanese society. It was a rejection of all the country has believed in for over 60 years.
Japan was fundamentally altered by its defeat in World War II. It chose to abjure war and to recreate itself as a wealthy country. But how long, one wonders, did our faith in peace, democracy and economic growth really last? Not long, it seems. Over the past two decades growth has faltered, economic disparity has greatly increased and faith in the political order has eroded. Though they didn’t say it, people could tell that sooner or later some disaster had to happen. That young writer only gave it a name.
Days after the earthquake, supermarket shelves were empty, long lines of cars had formed outside gas stations, parents were taking their children out of Tokyo. The television showed endless images of demolished towns; the numbers of the dead and missing climbed mercilessly upward into five digits; and refugees in dark gymnasiums lay trembling in the freezing cold, waiting for help. These are scenes from a war.
For the first time in his reign, Emperor Akihito made a televised address to the Japanese people. This, too, reminded us of his father’s radio address at the end of World War II, 66 years ago.
And now we are transfixed by the images of reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant; they’re emitting flames, exploding. When the first small, brown mushroom cloud rose, memories we had sealed off deep inside suddenly surfaced.
For 66 years, we lived the “postwar” life. Periodically someone would point out that the postwar period must surely be over by now — and yet it wasn’t. We had no other word to describe the present.
We lost many things in those years, chief among them the bond between people. Companies, families and neighbors ceased to work together, and the word kozoku was coined to describe our country: ko meaning “isolated” or “orphaned,” zoku meaning “family” or “tribe.” We were lonely, adrift.
Eiji Oguma, one of the most prominent social historians here, once asked, “How long do we have to go on using this word ‘postwar’?” He answered himself: “Forever. Because we established a new country after the defeat. When we say ‘however many years after the defeat,’ it really means ‘however many years after the founding of the nation.’ ”
“Then again,” Mr. Oguma added, “maybe we’ll only use it until the next war.”
Now, amid the chaos of the battle we are waging, we feel a familiar sense of exhilaration in the air, an intense feeling of solidarity. We can only wonder what the new Japan will look like.
— GENICHIRO TAKAHASHI, author of “Sayonara, Gangsters.” This article was translated by Michael Emmerich from the Japanese.
Many people are wondering why anyone would build nuclear power plants in a country so prone to natural disasters — and that’s a very reasonable question. But the reality is that, having accepted nuclear power as a necessary evil, we have no choice but to go on living with it.
What is hard to accept, however, is that the electrical power companies and government agencies tried to account for the disaster by explaining that the circumstances that led up to it were far outside the bounds of anything that could have been predicted — in their words, “beyond all expectations.” We have heard this phrase repeatedly on television reports.
There is something strange about this line of thinking. It even begins to appear that Japan’s vaunted scientific and technical prowess has taken on the character of a kind of myth, and that myth has deluded the nation’s politicians and business leaders. But it has been obvious all along that science and technology can deal only with things that fall within the range of what can be expected. And also that it is all too likely that some things that happen in our lives will indeed be “beyond all expectations” — and that it is precisely for this reason that we are able to live those lives. What, after all, would be the meaning of a life in which everything that happened was “within expectations”?
Every one of the images of the victims that we have seen on television has been gripping, but the one that has made the deepest impression on my heart is that of a little girl tearfully calling out for her missing mother. I believe in the purity of this girl’s heart more than I believe in the pledges of any politician, no matter how sincere. A cry of despair, to be sure, but also a sign of her unshakable will to face reality in its very harshest form.
And yet, in the end, what else is there for each of us to do but to keep on doing what we have been doing, as long and as hard as we can? From within the daily lives of each one of us, a small light of hope will begin to glow. This is what I want to believe. Would it be too much to say that a person’s ability to harbor such an unlikely belief in the power of hope is also something “beyond all expectation”?
— MITSUYOSHI NUMANO, professor of literature at the University of Tokyo. This article was translated by Joel R. Cohn from the Japanese.
July 16, 2011
Drought: A Creeping Disaster
By ALEX PRUD’HOMME
FLOODS, tornadoes, earthquakes, tsunamis and other extreme weather have left a trail of destruction during the first half of 2011. But this could be just the start to a remarkable year of bad weather. Next up: drought. In the South, 14 states are now baking in blast-furnace conditions — from Arizona, which is battling the largest wildfire in its history, to Florida, where fires have burned some 200,000 acres so far. Worse, drought, unlike earthquakes, hurricanes and other rapid-moving weather, could become a permanent condition in some regions.
Climatologists call drought a “creeping disaster” because its effects are not felt at once. Others compare drought to a python, which slowly and inexorably squeezes its prey to death.
The great aridification of 2011 began last fall; now temperatures in many states have spiked to more than 100 degrees for days at a stretch. A high pressure system has stalled over the middle of the country, blocking cool air from the north. Texas and New Mexico are drier than in any year on record.
The deadly heat led to 138 deaths last year, more than hurricanes, tornadoes or floods, and it turns brush to tinder that is vulnerable to lightning strikes and human carelessness. Already this year, some 40,000 wildfires have torched over 5.8 million acres nationwide — and the deep heat of August is likely to make conditions worse before they get better.
Climatologists disagree about what caused this remarkable dry-out. But there is little disagreement about the severity of the drought — or its long-term implications. When I asked Richard Seagar, who analyzed historical records and climate model projections for the Southwest for the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, if a perpetual drought was possible there, he replied: “You can’t really call it a drought because that implies a temporary change. The models show a progressive aridification. You don’t say, ‘The Sahara is in drought.’ It’s a desert. If the models are right, then the Southwest will face a permanent drying out.”
Growing population has increased the burden on our water supply. There are more people on earth than ever, and in many places we are using water at unsustainable rates. Cultural shifts contribute to subtle, far-reaching effects on water supplies. In 2008, for the first time, more people lived in cities than in rural communities worldwide, and water is becoming urbanized. Yet some of the world’s biggest cities — Melbourne, Australia; Barcelona, Spain; and Mexico City — have already suffered drought emergencies. Further drying could lead to new kinds of disasters. Consider Perth, Australia: its population has surpassed 1.7 million while precipitation has decreased. City planners worry that unless drastic action is taken, Perth could become the world’s first “ghost city” — a modern metropolis abandoned for lack of water.
Similar fates may await America’s booming desert cities: Las Vegas, Phoenix or Los Angeles.
Our traditional response to desiccation has been to build hydro-infrastructure — dams, pipelines, aqueducts, levees. Many advocate building even bigger dams and ambitious plumbing projects including one that calls for “flipping the Mississippi,” a scheme to capture Mississippi floodwater and pipe it to the parched West. But it is now widely believed that large water diversion projects are expensive, inefficient and environmentally destructive.
The Holy Grail of water managers is to find a drought-proof water source. Weather modification (“weather mod”), or cloud seeding, is a particularly appealing ideal. When American chemists discovered that dry ice dropped into clouds produced snow, and that clouds seeded with silver iodide produced rain, they rhapsodized about ending drought. Under perfect conditions, weather mod can increase precipitation by 10 to 15 percent. Ski areas, including Vail, Colo., hire companies to seed snow-producing clouds. And China claims that it produced 36 billion metric tons of rain a year between 1999 and 2006.
But critics, including the National Research Council, question weather mod and its efficacy. Bottom line: though evidence suggests weather mod works to a limited extent, it is unlikely to produce a major supply of water soon.
The ocean is a more promising water source. For centuries people have dreamed of converting saltwater into a limitless supply of fresh water. In 1961 President John F. Kennedy said that “if we could ever competitively, at a cheap rate, get fresh water from saltwater” it would “dwarf any other scientific accomplishments.” By 2008 over 13,000 desalination plants around the world produced billions of gallons of water a day. But “desal,” which is costly and environmentally controversial, has been slow to catch on the United States.
Recycled sewage offers an interesting, if aesthetically questionable, drinking source. (Supporters call recycled sewage “showers to flowers”; detractors condemn “toilet to tap” schemes.) Plans for sewage recycling, which involves extracting and purifying the water, are slowly gaining acceptance. Windhoek, Namibia — one of the driest places on earth — relies solely on treated wastewater for its drinking supply. In El Paso 40 percent of the tap water is recycled sewage. Fairfax, Va., gets 5 percent of its tap water from recycling effluent. But the “yuck factor” has led to a sharp debate about its merits.
MEANWHILE, global demand for water is expected to increase by two-thirds by 2025, and the United Nations fears a “looming water crisis.” To forestall a drought emergency, we must redefine how we think of water, value it, and use it.
Singapore provides a noteworthy model: no country uses water more sparingly. In the 1950s, it faced water rationing, but it began to build a world-class water system in the 1960s. Now 40 percent of its water comes from Malaysia, while a remarkable 25 to 30 percent is provided by desalination and the recycling of wastewater; the rest is drawn from sources that include large-scale rainwater collection. Demand is curbed by high water taxes and efficient technologies, and Singaporeans are constantly exhorted to conserve every drop. Most important, the nation’s water is managed by a sophisticated, well-financed, politically autonomous water authority. As a result, Singapore’s per-capita water use fell to 154 liters, about 41 gallons, a day in 2011, from 165 liters, about 44 gallons, in 2003.
America is a much larger and more complex nation. But Singapore’s example suggests we could do a far better job of educating our citizens about conservation. And we could take other basic steps: install smart meters to find out how much water we use, and identify leaks (which drain off more than 1 trillion gallons a year); use tiered water pricing to encourage efficiency; promote rainwater harvesting and wastewater recycling on a large scale. And like Singapore, we could streamline our Byzantine water governance system and create a new federal water office — a water czar or an interagency national water board — to manage the nation’s supply in a holistic way.
No question this will be an expensive, politically cumbersome effort. But as reports from New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Georgia and Florida make plain, business as usual is not a real option. The python of drought is already wrapped tightly around us, and in weeks — and years — to come it will squeeze us dangerously dry.
Alex Prud'Homme is the author of “The Ripple Effect: The Fate of Fresh Water in the 21st Century.”
Pakistan: Devastating flood, one year later.
Devastating floods, driven by unprecedented monsoon rains, began late in July 2010, leaving one-fifth of Pakistan submerged. The rains in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan regions of Pakistan directly affected 20 million people mostly by destruction of property, livelihood and infrastructure. It left 2,000 people dead and 11 million homeless. In this post, we revisit some of those affected as the monsoon season approaches the region again. The last five images by Reuters photographer Adrees Latif (click on the image to fade the photograph) show us his subjects almost one year later, as he brought them back to the place where he photographed them during the 2010 flooding. -- Paula Nelson (34 photos total)
Over one million affected by floods in Sindh: Qaim Ali Shah
Published: August 16, 2011
KARACHI: Chief Minister Sindh, Qaim Ali Shah has said more than one million people have been affected by the recent floods in six districts of the province, Express 24/7 reported on Tuesday.
Speaking to the media at Sukkur Airport, Shah said that 1,100,000 people had fallen victim to floods in interior Sindh.
He said 123 flood relief camps had been set up in Badin and the army, navy and civil administration had been mobilised to begin relief work.
The chief minister said flood victims had been provided with accommodation in schools and Watan Cards would be distributed to the victims soon.
Badin, Tando Muhammad Khan, Mirpur Khas calamity hit
The government of Sindh has declared Badin, Tando Muhammad Khan and Mirpur Khas calamity hit areas following fresh floods in the province.
Rescue operations are currently underway and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has ordered the use of helicopters to help with the effort.
Recent rains have caused flooding and destruction of infrastructure and crops in 24 out of 30 union councils in Mirpur Khas.
Around 120 relief camps have been set up in the region for 18,000 people.
In Badin, breaches in canals have not been repaired as yet. More than 45,000 people have been shifted to 170 relief centres set up by the district administration.
Rescuers are facing problems in the inundated villages due to absence of a road network.
Six Union Councils of Mathi District have also been inundated and all schools across the district have been converted into relief camps to shelter the victims.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) had earlier said over 200,000 people have been affected in flood-hit areas in interior Sindh.
The authority says a hundred villages have been flooded in Badin after a breach in a major salinity drain widened further to 200 feet.
UN agencies monitoring situation
United Nations humanitarian agencies are closely watching the flood situation in affected areas of Punjab and Sindh and waiting for a green signal from the government to start relief operations.
World Food Program (WFP) spokesman Amjad Jamal said around 750,000 people have been affected in Punjab & Sindh, 25 have died in Sindh and about 50,000 others were displaced in rain-hit areas.
He said humanitarian agencies can only start relief operations after a written request from the government.
“We are ready to start relief operations and begin work in rain affected areas as soon as a request is received. First government would fulfill its responsibility of relief operation and if authorities feel affected people need operation on large scale in that situation they will call UN humanitarian agencies,” he said.
October 3, 2011
Trial Over Earthquake in Italy Puts Focus on Probability and Panic
By HENRY FOUNTAIN
The manslaughter trial of six seismologists and a government official in the central Italian city of L’Aquila, stemming from what the authorities say was a failure to warn the population before a deadly 2009 earthquake, has outraged many scientists. Thousands have signed petitions protesting the prosecution as anti-science.
But the trial, which resumed Saturday, has also focused attention on a vexing problem in earthquake-prone regions around the world: how to effectively communicate the risk of potential disaster. Whatever the merits of the L’Aquila case, scientists and government officials have difficulty conveying what they know about the risk of earthquakes in ways that help prepare the public without sowing panic.
“People are expecting much more information, in particular quantitative information,” said Thomas H. Jordan, a professor at the University of Southern California and director of the Southern California Earthquake Center. “Coming clean with what you know is being demanded by the public.”
Earthquakes differ from other types of natural disasters. Meteorologists can track a hurricane with precision, but seismologists cannot predict exactly when and where an earthquake will occur. Scientists have condemned the Italian prosecution for this reason, saying the defendants are on trial for failing to do something that is impossible.
What seismologists are increasingly able to do, however, is forecast the likelihood that a quake will occur in a certain area over a certain time. Statistical analysis shows, for example, that some seismic activity — a minor quake or a swarm of very small ones — increases the probability of a larger, destructive earthquake in the same area.
But the probabilities are still very small, and they become even smaller with time. Given a low-probability forecast of an event that has potentially high consequences, the problem, Dr. Jordan said, becomes “what the heck do you do with that kind of information?”
That was a question that the Italian defendants faced. In the months before a magnitude 6.3 quake hit L’Aquila on April 6, 2009, killing more than 300, the area had experienced an earthquake swarm. That probably increased the likelihood of a major earthquake in the near future by a factor of 100 or 1,000, Dr. Jordan said, but the probability remained very low — perhaps 1 in 1,000.
But there was a wild card in L’Aquila that complicated the situation. As the earthquake swarm continued over several months, a local man who is not a scientist issued several predictions of a large earthquake — specific as to date and location — based on measurements of radon, a radioactive gas that is released as rocks fracture.
The predictions, none of which proved accurate, increased public anxiety in the city — so much so that the Italian government convened a meeting of a national risk-forecasting commission, including the seismologists and the government official, in L’Aquila on March 30.
At the meeting, the seismologists noted that it was possible, though unlikely, that the seismic activity could be a sign that a larger quake was imminent. They also noted that there was always some risk in L’Aquila, which has a history of earthquakes. But in a news conference afterward, the message to the public became garbled, with the government official assuring that there was no danger.
“The government ended up looking like it was saying, ‘No, there’s not going to be a big earthquake,’ ” when the scientists had not precluded the possibility, said Dr. Jordan, who was the chairman of a commission established by the Italian government after the quake to look at the forecasting issue.
The statement by the official, who is not a seismologist, violated a cardinal rule of risk communication, which is that those involved should speak only to their expertise, said Dennis Mileti, an emeritus professor of behavioral science at the University of Colorado at Boulder. “This person should not have been speaking,” said Dr. Mileti, who has studied risk communication.
In general, said Michael Lindell, a professor at Texas A & M, scientists should advise emergency managers about the likelihood of events, and then the managers should make the yes-or-no decisions about whether to order an evacuation or urge the public to make other, simpler preparations. But often the roles become confused.
“When you step over the boundary outside your area of expertise, then there aren’t necessarily any warning signs,” Dr. Lindell said.
The L’Aquila news conference did not fill what was essentially an information vacuum, Dr. Jordan said. “One of the principles that social science has shown is that the public wants to hear things from people they trust,” he said. “They want to hear things repeated.
“You don’t want to put out information just when there’s a seismic crisis, because people then don’t have the context for this kind of information,” he added. “You want people to get used to how these things ebb and flow.”
California, with its active seismic zones, has a system for communicating risks to the public on a regular basis — though it, too, has flaws, Dr. Jordan said.
Just a few weeks before the L’Aquila quake, an analysis of an earthquake swarm in Southern California showed an increased likelihood of a major earthquake near the southern end of the San Andreas fault. While the probability was small, it was high enough that a scientific group decided to advise the state’s emergency management agency. (In the end, no quake occurred.)
Even if the information at the L’Aquila news conference had been correct and the public had been warned there was a slightly higher risk, Dr. Mileti said, it would probably have made little difference. “One person saying once ‘You don’t have to worry’ is probably not why they didn’t do what they might have done to protect themselves,” he said. “Humans are hard-wired to deny low-probability, high-impact events.”
The only way to overcome that, he continued, is through constant communication. Once-a-year earthquake drills, like those in California, are not enough. The messages have to be everywhere, repeated ad nauseam.
“If you want to sell earthquake preparation in a way that it affects human behavior,” he said, “you have to sell it like Coca-Cola.”
Many residents of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts didn’t get too worried when Hurricane Isaac was bearing down on them recently, perhaps in part because it was ranked as only Category 1. They might have been expecting a drizzle like New York City got a year ago from its Category 1 storm, Irene, rather than the drenching that other areas suffered from that storm. There can be a similar disconnect in how we think about earthquakes; the quakes in China on Friday, all less than magnitude 5.8, killed dozens of people and destroyed thousands of homes.
How could we improve the rating systems for natural disasters like hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquakes?
Katmandu is first on the list of cities deemed most vulnerable to seismic risk in the world. Every year in mid-January, Nepal marks National Earthquake Safety Day to commemorate the massive earthquake that flattened Katmandu in 1934. Our newspaper’s coverage of that occasion this year had highlighted the need for Nepal to better prepare for a disaster; it was only a matter of time before the next one hit.
NATURAL disasters like the devastating earthquake in Nepal constitute a highly uncertain but quantifiable risk. No one can say for sure when a major earthquake will strike. But the fault lines are known. We need a new global system of disaster insurance, akin to how homeowners guard against calamity.
Relief teams and millions of dollars of aid are arriving in Nepal, but despite the best of intentions, emergency operations will be a desperate patchwork, and long-term rebuilding will be hampered by lack of funds, donor fatigue and red tape. That’s what happened in Haiti after the 2010 earthquake, in the Philippines after a string of recent typhoons, and in the West Africa Ebola epidemic. We need a better approach.
Even poor countries can take precautions, especially if international organizations help them to do it. Think of commercial airline safety, which, though not flawless, is high even in the poorest regions in the world. There is an integrated system that connects airplane manufacturers, airline companies, air-traffic controllers, global insurers and national and global regulators.
Catastrophes like earthquakes, typhoons, droughts, floods and epidemics pose quantifiable risks. These risks can’t be specified with the actuarial precision that underlies home and life insurance, but there is enough precision to allow for insurance coverage. For hundreds of years, Lloyd’s and other insurers have been diversifying the risks of even one-time events; natural hazards like earthquakes are not one-time events, but occurrences that return with calculable probabilities.
Suppose Nepal’s government could have gone shopping for earthquake insurance to cover the large-scale losses and public-sector response after a disaster. Potential underwriters would examine the probabilities of earthquakes at various magnitudes, using the historical record, seismic modeling and assessments of the vulnerabilities of the buildings.
The leading insurer, generally a reinsurance company, would then sell off its excess exposure to Nepal’s earthquake risk to other insurance companies, or even capital markets around the world via so-called catastrophe bonds and similar instruments. These risk carriers would receive part of Nepal’s premium payments, and be required to pay out to Nepal in the event of an earthquake. Nepal would be financially protected, and insurers would diversify the risk.
The original insurance underwriter would have made demands of Nepal, that it implement cost-effective earthquake-preparedness measures, like updated building and zoning codes; a disaster response plan; and emergency health systems. These steps would limit expected damages caused by natural disaster — and lower the premium and expected payout. Over time, underwriting benchmarks would be standardized around the world.
Most low-income countries and some rich ones as well are woefully unprepared for the quantifiable catastrophic risks they face, whether seismological shocks, climate-related catastrophes or epidemics. After each disaster, the afflicted countries and United Nations agencies must call on other countries to make ad hoc pledges of funds and response teams; there’s no global equivalent of the fire department. It’s often too little, too late.
How would a disaster insurance system work? World-leading reinsurers, such as Swiss Re, Munich Re and others, would bid to provide countries with the service. Governments would pay annual premiums, linked to actuarial assessments of risks, with international donor agencies like the World Bank helping to share the costs, based on the resources of the insured countries. For some large and unpredictable risks, where the private sector alone won’t provide cover, additional official financing would be blended with private funds, similar to what takes place in the United States with flood and crop insurance.
Cost-sharing with international agencies like the World Bank would have to be attractive enough for poor countries to obtain coverage on reasonable terms. For high-income donor countries, the upside would be a global system with reduced vulnerability and with less need to provide ad hoc post-disaster aid.
Insurance would reveal how vulnerable certain parts of the world are to rising costs of disasters, including those associated with global warming. But at least we’d be able to begin to account for this. It would provide a powerful way to drive mitigation and adaptation investments, a point emphasized in recent years by Rowan Douglas of the insurer Willis Group.
A global system of disaster insurance would of course not be perfect and would take time to implement, but could save many lives and livelihoods in the years ahead, and help vulnerable low-income countries like Haiti and Nepal chart a path to sustainable development.
Tajikistan Floods – 10,000 Forced to Evacuate in Gorno-Badakhsan Region
The rapid melting of snow and glaciers due to higher temperatures between 01 and 15 July 2015 have triggered mudflows in the Shugnan District in the eastern region of Gorno-Badakhshan, Tajikistan.
The mudflows have caused damage to buildings and infrastructure in local villages. The debris has also blocked the flow of the Gund river, creating an artificial lake which has flooded areas along the river.
As of 18 July 2015, the UN’s Rapid Emergency Assessment and Coordination Team (REACT) in Tajikistan reports that at least 56 houses have been destroyed and 10,000 people forced to evacuate to safer sites. Schools, stores, roads and electricity lines have also been damaged and 80% of the communities in the region have been without electricity. No casualties have been reported.
There is a risk of the lake overflowing or breaking through its temporary blockage. REACT say that this could cause devastating floods in Khorog and nearby communities, including three districts of Khatlon Oblast.
Photo credit: Focus Humanitarian Assistance in Tajikistan Map of debris and floods. Image: Rapid Emergency Assessment and Coordination Team in Tajikistan. See the full map here.
PESHAWAR: The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government on Tuesday said around 300,000 people had been affected by the flash floods in the northern district of Chitral.
Information minister Mushtaq Ghani told reporters at the Peshawar Press Club that roads, power transmission system and water schemes across the district were worst hit by the natural calamity.
He said 26 villages were worst hit by floods.
The minister said upper parts of Chitral was cut-off, while in Kuragh, raging currents washed away Chitral-Booni Road, stranding around 200,000 people.
He said Kalash valley with a population of 25,000 and Lotkuh tehsil with a population of over 60,000 were also cut off.
Ghani said the government had allocated Rs140 million for the rehabilitation of flood-affected infrastructure in Chitral.
He said of the funds allocated, Rs100 million was for the rehabilitation of roads, Rs30 million for restoration of drinking water supply and Rs10 million for repairs of irrigation channels.
The minister said 20 tonnes of relief goods were dispatched to the district, while another 20 tonnes of goods would be sent today (Wednesday).
He said the Chitral deputy commissioner had been authorised to use Rs20 million funds from the district relief account.
Ghani said the flooding had destroyed 103 houses in Chitral and partially damaged 63, while 25 water supply schemes were destroyed.
He said roads from Chitral to Booni, Orguch, Garam Chashma, Bambouret and Mastuj were badly damaged in the calamity.
The minister said the floods washed away 30 percent of trees in Shoghar, Mastuj, Garam Chashma and Oveer villages and damaged 40 percent of cultivable land in the district.
“The flash floods also washed away nine bridges and buildings of a hotel, a private college and a power station in Chitral,” he said.
The minister said the secretaries of public health and communication and works departments had been sent to Chitral to access damages caused by flash floods.
He said the army and Chitral Scouts were helping the district government handle the crisis.
Ghani said PTI chief Imran Khan and Chief Minister Pervez Khattak would visit Chitral today (Wednesday).
JI, ANP CRITICISE GOVT: The Awami National Party and Jamaat-i-Islami on Tuesday criticised the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf-led government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for allocating Rs1 million for the flood-hit people of Chitral.
In a news release issued here, ANP leader Asfandyar Wali Khan regretted the losses caused by flash floods in Chitral and asked the government to reach out to the calamity victims for rescue and relief.
He said Chitralis had no 0.3m affected by Chitral floods food and drinking water and had lost contact with other parts of the country.
Asfandyar criticised the government for allocating Rs1 million for the flood-hit families in Chitral.
“That is a meagre amount compared to the losses they (people of Chitral) have suffered due to floods,” he said.
In a press statement issued here, JI provincial chief Professor Ibrahim Khan criticised the chief minister for announcing only Rs1 million for the flood-hit Chitral.
He said the government should allocate a hefty amount of money to help flood victims in Chitral.
The JI leader said Al-Khidmat Foundation, the party’s welfare organisation, was helping Chitralis restore water channels.
He said the people, whose houses were destroyed by flooding, would also be supported.
Professor Ibrahim said senior provincial minister Inayatullah Khan would go to Chitral today (Wednesday) to oversee relief activities.
He said provincial president of Al-Khidmat Foundation Noorul Haq would also reach Chitral today (Wednesday) for distribution of cash to flood victims for the restoration of small water channels.
The JI leader said the welfare organisation had already dispatched trucks loaded with food items to the calamity-hit district.
CHITRAL: After a day of respite, a new spate of flash floods caused by torrential rains struck Chitral on Thursday afternoon, leaving two people dead and washing away more than two dozen homes in different parts of the district.
The high-magnitude flood in Chitral Gol stream passing transversally through the city washed away five homes, a pedestrian bridge and two shops, causing panic among people and forcing them to leave the area.
Know more: Torrential rain adds to misery of flood-hit Chitral
Having its origin in the Chitral Gol National Park, the stream was seen carrying with it a large number of deodar logs.
Floods in Kalash valleys of Bumburate and Rumbur swept away four houses and a pedestrian track, inflicting further damage to roads and agricultural lands.
Muhkamuddin, a local journalist who was among the people stranded in Bumburate, told Dawn by phone that the new spate of floods had terrified people as they were fast losing their lands and homes to the flood.
Seven homes were washed away in Lone village in Upper Chitral, four in Nisur Gol of Laspur valley, five in Karimabad village and three in Ayun village.
The deceased were identified as M. Khan, of Ayun, and Asif Ahmed, of Karimabad. Their bodies were retrieved from the flood.
According to residents, a number of Kashmir markhors were killed by the flood. Chitral Gol Community Conservation and Development Association Chairman Hussain Ahmed put the number at eight and said it might increase.
The flood abnormally raised the water level in river Chitral, inundating low-lying villages of Gwari Jughur, Kuju, Ragh, Jinjirate and Drosh.
The National Disaster Management Authority in Sindh is working on a curriculum to help people make the right decisions in crisis situations to stay safe
As Pakistan observed the 10th anniversary of the devastating earthquake which wreaked havoc in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Azad Kashmir, the Sindh government is contemplating to introduce a comprehensive section on disaster management in its school curriculum — as natural disasters are becoming a routine affair in the province.
Since past five years, the most recurring calamity to hit the province is floods, which render millions homeless and damage livelihood worth billions of dollars. Last summer, a heat wave struck the provincial capital Karachi, killing over a 1000 people in a span of four days. Recurring droughts, minor earthquake jolts have also become common in the last one decade.
Director General of Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Sindh Syed Salman Shah says that his department is working on a curriculum with the help of the World Bank which will be presented to the Sindh Textbook Board by the end of this year.
“It is really important that people learn to make the right decisions in crisis situations,” he says. “In developed countries major earthquakes do not result in high causalities because the government teaches its citizens how to remain safe. So, that’s the idea.”
Only last Monday, in Karachi’s Gulistan-e-Jauhar area, a middle class neighborhood — a landslide killed 13 people, including women and children. In an investigation report, the Karachi Development Authority claimed it was a natural calamity as opposed to what many environment activists say was the result of criminal negligence of the officials as illegal settlers were not forbidden from building makeshift huts under massive boulders that fell on them.
Elders of coastal communities can predict that there is a storm brewing in deep sea when a certain fish is seen jumping frequently in the coastal waters. Or, they can forecast an imminent flood by the turn of water in certain seasons.
Environment experts and urban planners welcome the PDMA’s suggestion to make students aware of the various disasters and train them on survival drills but argued that the curriculum should take into account the typology of natural disasters that hit the province. Given the Sindh government’s track record, some are cynical that it might take a one-size-fits-all approach, without delving into the dynamics of natural disasters that the province is vulnerable to.
Sindh is hit by floods, wildfires, famine, drought and the threat of cyclone lingers on the coastal areas of the province during summers and Karachi — its biggest city — is prone to earthquake. The effects of climate change were evident last year when an unprecedented heat wave killed over thousand.
“The government should make the children aware about the various natural threats and how they can deal with each, but major rescue operations will always be the state’s responsibility. At an individual level, the people can help themselves only to a certain extent. The primary task of rescue will always rest with the government,” says Mansoor Raza, an independent researcher who studies mega cities.
On the urban front, Raza says safety guidelines are essential while planning a city’s infrastructure to avert any disaster. “I believe high casualty in natural disaster is the result of bad planning,” he says.
Referring to the 2005 earthquake, he asks, “where were the land control authorities when people were building three to four story buildings on the mountains in KPK and Azad Kashmir?”
Raza points out that schools run under the Aga Khan management in the quake-affected areas remained safe because they were designed taking the environment into account.
On Karachi’s infrastructural mis-planning, he says that certain neighbourhoods in the city cannot tackle a massive fire incident. If fire erupts, God forbid, vehicles carrying water aid won’t be able to reach these areas and the casualty will be enormous.
The awareness programme can be more far-reaching and effective if the NDMA benefits from the knowledge of the indigenous communities in Sindh who are living here for hundreds of years. They have learned signs to predict various calamities that should be looked into. These people belong to the region and have survived for hundreds of years on their wisdom, says Mansoor Raza. For instance, elders of coastal communities can predict that there is a storm brewing in deep sea when a certain fish is seen jumping frequently in the coastal waters. Or, they can forecast an imminent flood by the turn of water in certain seasons.
Dr Noman Ahmed, the head of architecture at NED University says preparing students for any disaster situation is always welcome, but for that to effectively happen, the children should know the various types of disasters their areas are prone to and work out ways to deal with them.
Annually, Sindh is hit by floods, lightings, cyclones and other disasters, the students should know their responsibilities and the duties of the various government departments in order to take on a crisis situation.
“It’s a complete science. So if the Sindh government is planning to add it to the curriculum. It should be done effectively so that when anything happens, children are prepared,” adds Raza.
Avalanche in Karimabad, Chitral: Rescue Operation continues
The Express Tribune, March 25th, 2016: A rescue operation continued for the sixth consecutive day to recover a buried student under an avalanche in Karimabad, Chitral, said an ISPR statement.
On March 19, nine people were trapped by a landslide in Karimabad and an immediate rescue operation was launched by the Chitral Scouts who were aided by the civil administration and locals. The military moved specialised rescue teams with equipment and sniffer dogs, while army aviation flew three sorties to transport manpower and necessary tools.
NDMA urban search and rescue teams of and CDA used ground penetration radar with a life object locator and snow melting chemicals were also transported to Chitral.
Former nazim Sultan Shah and Karimabad district council member Muhammad Yaqub said 300 people are struggling to recover buried bodies.
Team aids mountain societies facing climate change
An international team of scientists – led by a Cornell professor of natural resources – will help communities in Asia’s Pamir Mountains recalibrate their seasonal-indicator ecological calendars to reckon the future effects of climate change. The Belmont Forum, which funds global environmental research, will provide a $1.35 million for a three-year study.
“Indigenous societies in mountain communities around the world have used ‘ecological calendars’ as seasonal indicators for hundreds of years to sow seeds, grow crops, tend to animals, fish, hunt and harvest. Ecological calendars are systems that track time by observing seasonal changes in our habitat, such as the nascence of a flower, the appearance of an insect, the arrival of a migratory bird, the breakup of ice, last day of snow-cover,” said Karim-Aly Kassam, associate professor of environmental and indigenous studies in the Department of Natural Resources, who will lead the project.
Ecological calendars offer a way to anticipate climatic variation, as “Indigenous societies are at the vanguard of climate-change impacts – yet none of these societies contributed to its causes,” he said.
By adapting the ecological calendars, a transdisciplinary group of scientists hope to improve food and livelihood security among communities in the Pamir Mountains – some the world’s tallest peaks and surrounded by Afghanistan, China, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. The transdisciplinary aspect is key, as social and biophysical scientists work in tandem with indigenous groups to address highly challenging problems of this millennium.
Following the research, Kassam said, the scientists hope to provide a replicable model for similar initiatives in other mountain communities.
To establish long-term adaptation of these calendars, the scientists will strengthen partnerships between communities and regional universities by initiating community-based climatic and phenological-monitoring programs, said Kassam. The group will train undergraduates at the University of Central Asia, whose campuses are located in mountain regions, as community researchers.
For this international effort, Jianchu Xu from the Kunming Institute of Botany at the Chinese Academy of Sciences will research ethno-ecology, climate change adaptation and plant phenology, as another team led by Cyrus Samimi, University of Bayreuth, Germany, will investigate time-series analyses of climate data, remote-sensed imagery and local perceptions of environmental change. Antonio Trabucco, of the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy, will examine the impacts of climate on agricultural and ecosystem services.
The Belmont Forum funding builds on 2015 Academic Venture Fund money received from Cornell’s Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future, which supported research on ecological calendars. Those ACSF faculty included Kassam as principal investigator; Art DeGaetano, professor of earth and atmospheric sciences; Christopher Dunn, director of Cornell Plantations; Amanda Rodewald, professor and director of conservation science at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology; and David Wolfe, professor of horticulture.
Heavy rains, landslides damage 600 houses in Gilgit Baltistan – FOCUS Humanitarian Pakistan responds immediately
Heavy rains, snowfall that continued for 48 hours has brought life to a standstill in parts of Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and Chitral, which triggered a series of snow avalanches, unusual flash floods and landslides damaging 600 houses with thousands of other homes reporting leaks in the roof.
Focus Humanitarian Assistance (FOCUS) Pakistan, an agency of the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) immediately responded to the crisis. It has deployed its Disaster Assessment Response Team (DART) to conduct rapid assessments working with local communities.
Over 100 affected households were immediately provided tents and blankets from community stockpiles setup by FOCUS Pakistan for emergencies. Water purification sachets have been provided to over 50 households in Oshikhandas and Sherqilla with support from the Aga Khan Planning and Building Service, Pakistan.
Access continues to be a major challenge, as roads are blocked in multiple locations …
Italy’s beauty is fragile. Ancient buildings are gorgeous but can be dangerous. Its cities are old and dense, and its buildings rendered vulnerable by heritage laws that protect them from modernization, for better and worse. Carmine Galasso, a lecturer in earthquake engineering at University College London, told Time magazine: “The challenge is really to assess the seismic safety of existing old buildings and prioritize interventions for retrofitting and strengthening.”
That takes time and costs money, though. And while Italy is a modern, wealthy country, many parts of the country are poor, its residents unable to shoulder the costs. Corrado Longa, an architect who lives in Spelonga, near Arquata del Tronto, in the area hit by the quake, told Corriere della Sera: “The owners are old and live alone, and they don’t have the resources. Or because they are considered just holiday homes, and people don’t care.” When disaster strikes, lack of resources and Italy’s cumbersome bureaucracy make it difficult to rebuild. Seven years and $13.5 billion were not enough to bring L’Aquila’s vast historic downtown back to life.
The Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) ShakeOut is a multi-country earthquake drill spanning over 20 countries designed to educate people on how to protect themselves during an earthquake, and how to get prepared.
13 die as avalanche hits village, check post in Chitral
CHITRAL: In Chitral, at least 25 houses were destroyed after being hit by an avalanche last night.
The incident occurred in Sher Shal village in Garam Chashma tehsil of Chitral after heavy snowfall.
Sources of Chitral District Administration told said recuse operation is in progress to recover the people trapped under the debris. Local authorities said 12 bodies have been recovered.
Seven injured have been rescued and shifted to civil hospital Garam Chashma.
In another incident, an avalanche hit a check post of Chital Scouts in Arandogol area.
Officials said an FC soldier was martyred and six were wounded. Rescue efforts were underway.
“An FC soldier Irshad embraced shahadat and 6 got injured when a Chitral scout post came under slide in Pishotan, Kandao, Arandu,” ISPR said.
ISPR said FC troops are assisting the civil administration and NDMA for rescue of individuals who came under snow slide last night.
“Subject to weather clearance Army helicopter will supply relief items and expedite relief operations,” ISPR said.
Meanwhile, army spokesman said in a statement that Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa (COAS) has directed for maximum assistance to NDMA, PDMA and local administrations for timely and effective rescue/relief effort in snow hit areas. - Samaa
More Than 100 Dead in Afghanistan, Pakistan Avalanches
More than 100 people are dead after areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan were hit with avalanches. In one northern Afghanistan town near the border with Pakistan, 45 people were killed. Many who died either froze to death or were trapped in cars. “Avalanches have buried two entire villages,” an Afghan government official told AFP. Search-and-rescue efforts have been thwarted by worsening weather and blocked roads. Kabul’s airport has been shut down due to icy conditions on its runways.
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LONDON — Somalis traditionally did not number years but instead gave each a name that immortalized important events or crises.
Nineteen eleven was the year of forbidden food, meaning a hunger so profound that people were reduced to eating haram foods that Islam proscribes; nineteen twenty-eight was the year of registration, widespread drought forcing northern Somalis to finally submit to registration by their British colonizers in return for aid; nineteen seventy-four was the year of the long-tailed, an interminable drought in the whole region that contributed to the fall of Haile Selassie.
Famines have visited the Horn of Africa so regularly in the past 25 years that there has been no time for new poetic appellations.
But the number of deaths caused by them is falling
Although the number of such disasters keeps rising, far fewer people are dying as a result of them. In 1970, 200,000 people perished annually. That figure has been dramatically reduced, thanks to safety measures such as improved buildings and flood-prevention schemes. To reduce it still further, urban planners may have to operate on the assumption of even more extreme events.
More Than 1,000 Died in South Asia Floods This Summer
MUMBAI, India — More than 1,000 people have died in floods across South Asia this summer, and as sheets of incessant rain pummeled the vast region on Tuesday, worries grew that the death toll would rise along with the floodwaters.
According to the United Nations, at least 41 million people in Bangladesh, India and Nepal have been directly affected by flooding and landslides resulting from the monsoon rains, which usually begin in June and last until September.
And while flooding in the Houston area has grabbed more attention, aid officials say a catastrophe is unfolding in South Asia.
In Nepal, thousands of homes have been destroyed and dozens of people swept away. Elephants were pressed into service, wading through swirling waters to rescue people, and aid workers have built rafts from bamboo and banana leaves.
But many people are still missing, and some families have held last rites without their loved ones’ bodies being found.
“This is the severest flooding in a number of years,” Francis Markus, a spokesman for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, said by phone from Kathmandu, Nepal’s capital.
How government policy exacerbates hurricanes like Harvey
As if global warming were not enough of a threat, poor planning and unwise subsidies make floods worse
THE extent of the devastation will become clear only when the floodwater recedes, leaving ruined cars, filthy mud-choked houses and the bloated corpses of the drowned. But as we went to press, with the rain pounding South Texas for the sixth day, Hurricane Harvey had already set records as America’s most severe deluge (see Briefing). In Houston it drenched Harris County in over 4.5trn litres of water in just 100 hours—enough rainfall to cover an eight-year-old child.
The fate of America’s fourth-largest city holds the world’s attention, but it is hardly alone. In India, Bangladesh and Nepal, at least 1,200 people have died and millions have been left homeless by this year’s monsoon floods. Last month torrential rains caused a mudslide in Sierra Leone that killed over 1,000—though the exact toll will never be known. Around the world, governments are grappling with the threat from floods. This will ultimately be about dealing with climate change. Just as important, is correcting short-sighted government policy and the perverse incentives that make flooding worse.
DHAKA, Bangladesh — After two weeks of flooding, about half of Bangladesh is under water, 140 people have been killed, tens of thousands of families have been forced from their homes and well over a million acres of crops have been destroyed. The poorest, their rural livelihoods in ruins, will most likely have no choice but to head to the cities.
As experts attribute the frequency of immense floods to climate change, the thousands who move to Dhaka, the capital, and other cities should be considered climate refugees.
The floods have disrupted life in Dhaka, a megacity that is home to 16 million people. Roads turned into canals. Some people took to using boats. Some waded through waist-high water.
Dhaka is packed with an estimated 135,000 people per square mile and is already the densest metropolis in the world. Its creaky infrastructure can barely support the existing population. The arrival of thousands of flood victims will strain services further.
They Thought the Monsoons Were Calm. Then Came the Deadly Floods.
In a particularly severe season of storms and flooding around the world, the devastation in South Asia has been among the worst anywhere. The rains aren’t over yet, and already in India, Nepal and Bangladesh, more than 1,200 people have lost their lives.
Sadly, this happens every year. Deadly flooding is part of the landscape in South Asia, and over the past two decades an average of around 2,000 people have died each year, according to the International Disaster Database in Belgium.
But even by South Asian standards, what began as a slow storm season is entering a particularly intense second half. And despite all of India’s economic growth and the rapid infusion of mobile phones, computers, social media and other technology, millions of people in both rural and urban areas had no idea that dangerous weather was coming. Even some government officials said they had been given no warning.
Is there anything we can learn from hurricanes, storms and floods?
People have been asking that question for thousands of years, and telling stories that try to make sense of natural disasters. These flood myths are remarkably similar to one another.
A researcher named John D. Morris collected more than 200 of them, from ancient China, India, Native American cultures and beyond. He calculates that in 88 percent of the tales there is a favored family. In 70 percent, they survive the flood in a boat. In 67 percent, the animals are also saved in the boat. In 66 percent, the flood is due to the wickedness of man, and in 57 percent the boat comes to rest on a mountain top.
The authors of these myths are trying to make sense of vast and powerful forces. They are trying to figure out what sort of world they live in. Is it a capricious world, where cities are destroyed for no reason? Or perhaps it’s a just but merciless world, where civilizations are wiped out for their iniquity?
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